Covid-19 Update for September 24: 1,651 new cases (9.75% tests positive), 1,780 recoveries, 11 deaths
By - kirant
Anyone else get excited to see 66K doses delivered, and then get a little deflated when you realized 48K of that is third doses?
Don't get me wrong, doses are great and the third doses that help the vulnerable are good too (mine's coming up in 2 weeks), but it doesn't have quite the same excitement.
Yeah, we get less bang for our buck with a third dose than a first dose. But still, first doses have basically quadrupled since the vaccine passport was brought in.
How did we get 49 extra ICU beds
The magic of cancelling health care for other Albertans.
[Alberta CMOH update Thursday Sept 23rd: ](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QHDUEVFuQvA&amp;amp;amp;amp;list=PLvrD8tiHIX1L5LKwB0kl-4aJjkK4OuE-l&amp;amp;amp;amp;index=1)
Dr Yiu said: (paraphrasing. Not direct quotes )
As of today 177 surge spaces have been added to bring total capacity to 350. This means that the current capacity is at 179% of normal capacity (normal is 173 ICU beds).
Not sure why this data update pulled today says 343 (+49). Probably because the data released on the website is always lagging by a few days
The actual capacity was 350 according to yesterday's presser.
The data on Alberta Health's website is generally 3 days behind when it comes to ICU capacity (with some variance on weekends) - likely as a result of the difficulty trying to balance tabulating for the public and internally. The data reported yesterday would come up on the 26th if we had reporting on every day of the week.
Dr Yiu's value of 350 seems to be from the "morning of". Her value (and I believe Dr Hinshaw reports them if Dr Yiu doesn't attend) will be more accurate to the situation as it stands today.
The +49 today seems more likely to be tied to a database error. Yesterday, a new decrease in beds was reported, which suggests to me something was incorrectly entered (e.g. - a hospital didn't file how many beds they had and it was read as a "0" for ICU beds)
They opened another 18 beds yesterday. They are putting them anywhere they can.
Rolled in beds.
Someone wrote a letter to santa.
I don’t even think that big guy can help us now.
A friend of mine works in an OR in Edmonton, they've stopped doing cases and as of yesterday had a bunch of beds and equipment brought into their post op recovery area for ICU patients. I think she said they have space for 14 ICU patients
Is it the red cross/military that was called in maybe?
The Military and red cross
The deaths are insane
They were also completely predictable as of 8 weeks ago (there was enough data at that point that it was obvious what would happen if nothing was done to stop it).
Kenney is directly responsible for all of these deaths.
Hopefully Alberta gets on board with boosters when recommended for everyone. Most elderly people have been fully vaccinated for longer than 6 months, which is when immunity is said is likely to wane, and we’re now dealing with the Delta variant, which reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine even further. These older people who are catching COVID and dying despite being fully vaccinated likely had little immunity left and were in need of a booster, and with Delta being so much more voracious than wild COVID, they were unable to fight it off.
Only 10% of people 80 and over aren’t fully vaccinated. It’s likely that many of them cannot get the vaccine due to a medical condition and aren’t actually anti-vaccine. Either way, they’re likely not out in the community spreading COVID.
"overwhelmingly vaccinated" on a percentage basis. But in terms of raw numbers, about 10k people over the age of 80 have died so far, and there is about 10k unvaccinated albertans over the age of 80 remaining.
Exactly. Deaths will go on for a long time.
How on earth is it his fault people chose not get vaccinated? 80.1% of COVID-19 deaths (871/1,088) since Jan 1, 2021 were unvaccinated.
It's his fault for not doing his job and enacting health restrictions too late.
We could have masked 2 months ago, would have made a huge difference.
We could have done vaccine passports a month ago, would have made a huge difference.
Instead he went on vacation and they did nothing while things spun out of control.
Those inactions are entirely his fault. The outcome was entirely predictable.
He wanted to be the leader of the province, but he doesn't know how to lead.
Albertans are adults. We as a society here bare as much blame as Kenney. Hold them accountable as well.
There are plenty to blame, but Kenney takes the most by far.
Meh, I believe in self-accountability for ones actions. We shouldn’t need the government to hold our hand through a pandemic. They should be able to relay information to us the people and we should be able to do what is right. Alberta has had a culture problem for decades and this is what happens when that goes unaddressed for this long
It's not Meh, when a bunch of peoples lack of personal responsibility takes away health care from the rest of us.
Do you have any idea how f'd you'd be if some other non-self accountable individual caused you harm today?
Then I would hold them accountable not the government just like I’m holding the covidiots accountable and not blaming it on kenney. Hold the people doing the actions accountable
How exactly, are you holding any one accountable? What repercussions are you personally doling out, I'd love to know....
> How on earth is it his fault people chose not get vaccinated?
The government has the power to apply appropriate pressure to those people to get most of them vaccinated.
Exactly, we can already see the result of the vaccine passport. If they inplented that at least a month ago, many of these deaths could have been avoided. Instead the UCP was placating the anti-vaxxers.
And trying to make the federal Cons win. Hundreds Died from Conservatism.
Kenney lied and people died.
Like implementing some sort of passport? I think we've had like 2% more people get vaccinated since then. These people just aren't interested in protecting themselves
Well, the American government has straight-up mandated that any employer with >100 employees only employs vaccinated individuals.
I'm a fan of *real* financial incentives, instead of the piddly $100 we have now. Raise income taxes on everyone by 5% until the pandemic is properly over. (Or some other appropriate amount, I'm just throwing that out.) Provide a full income tax credit to the fully vaccinated. If people refuse to pay, treat them as we do other tax cheats, freeze their bank accounts and garnish their wages for the taxes + penalties + interest.
I like that idea. I'd be okay with mandating it, but I think that would be on the federal government, wouldn't jt?
The employee mandate? IANAL, but I expect the provincial government has the power to do that within the province - most labour issues are handled at the provincial level.
Who are these antivaxx 70+ years old that keep dying? Didn't they realize in the past year or so that their age group is a prime target for covid fatality?
I know an 80 year old woman who doesn't believe in vaccines because her long dead father who was born in 1911 did not believe in vaccines.
Where the fuck do they think Polio in the developed world went?
Well I know one who is worried about the long term side effects. Not joking.
They need to be held down and jabbed for their own good. My lord
Nah, we're better off letting them die, even with the health care issues.
If we can't get these people to take a shot to end a pandemic, how the hell are we going to get them to curtail their lives enough to make meaningful progress on climate change?
We need to cut our emissions by 45% below *2010* levels by 2030 in order to have a 66% chance of encountering runaway climate catastrophes that we cannot stop.
Not having these people voting will be beneficial to society as well.
It's not going to make one bit of difference in Alberta. Blue will win by 29 points instead of 30...
Let me have some hope
What am I reading here? Hahahaha I mean you’re not *wrong* but….
What a dark, sad take.
Some people may have been to frail to receive the vaccine, or be unable to get the vaccine due to cancer treatments, etc. I'm sure more elderly people are unable to get vaccinated than other age groups.
Its a shame that those unable to be vaccinated are now subject to a horrible death due to the people around them not keeping them safe.
Somebody posted the math on deaths in one of these threads a little while ago and it showed some 35% of deaths are from vaccinated, mostly elderly. That is high deaths/vax ratio. So it's not only antivax folks that are dying.
That sounds more like either you or he misunderstood some statistics.
That looks pretty plausible to me. The vaccine doesn’t make you invulnerable, it drops your risk by a lot. But, mortality with covid is very highly age-strafied, so your risk starts a lot higher for the elderly. A vaccinated 80 year-old has roughly the same expected health outcomes as an unvaccinated 50 year-old. There aren’t *more* elderly deaths because there aren’t actually that many elderly people if you look at the population pyramid, and because dropping their risk to that of an unvaccinated 50 year-old helps a lot.
Yesterday the dates of the deaths reported that day went to deaths up to September 21st.
Today the dates of the deaths reported only go up to September 19th.
According to [Robson Fletcher (CBC) ](https://twitter.com/cbcfletch/status/1441524864796475394?s=21) we are averaging 15 deaths a day right now.
As a morbid comparison, the Humboldt bus crash resulted in 16 deaths. So we are having a Humboldt bus crash every single day in Alberta.
Looks like active cases are continuing to trend down, that's great news. We might see that quick drop off that other places with delta wave saw. Still quite a bit of pain between now and being out of this wave though.
Just watched the Protect Our Province video on YouTube (this is the Alberta docs/HCWs/experts). They look terrified frankly and say the whole system is on the edge of the cliff - one superspreader event will collapse it all. Like 20,000 people crammed into a sports venue, for example?
I work with physicians and they are all terrified. I don’t know why more people aren’t outraged or scared about this. We are in major trouble.
I don't think most people know to be honest. They are just blissfully motoring along in their lives and the Premier isn't getting in front of the press giving speeches about it. Right now it's just some whistleblowing doctors on YouTube and Twitter. Don't get me wrong. I really value each and every doctor that is trying to get peoples attention but the general population is Absolutely not listening.
No one is going to listen until some tragedies start happening and even then I don't know how many it is going to take. 😔
It's so sad that these HCWs needing to scream as loud as they are just to ask for Albertans to not be dying. IT IS INSANE.
I think the Average Albertans that is concerned, has started to feel hopeless.
Our unvaccinated friends refuse to budge. Writing our MLA’s yields frustration.
I’m on Allard’s mailing list and among the few things she is advocating for is to keep pursuing surge capacity and increase the health system to flex with demands. This is magical thinking to think increasing the health system can be done instantaneously to stop this crisis.
And advocating for promotion of wellness to increase our natural immunity, which does nothing in this immediate moment to prevent the collapse that is occurring.
The average concerned Albertans feels unheard. And I’m starting to wonder how much pain the unvaccinated need to feel, before they wake up.
This gives me hope
Positivity rates also lower
Just in time for winter!
It's too bad we had so many people trying to claim we wouldn't have a fourth wave and that Covid was over, isn't it?
This will undulate for years. Playing NASCAR with the daily numbers can’t be healthy.
Well hopefully we get enough people vaccinated this winter that it doesn't *undulate* for much longer. Case numbers won't really matter if hospitals aren't full of people. Vaccination numbers are sure strong since the "covid passport not a passport" program went in place.
And every one of them still gets 100$ each dose, not like we could use that money for healthcare or anything...
I'm not to worried about the $100 per dose program, if thats what it takes to get someone vaccinated then its a hell of a lot cheaper than a $50,000 ICU stay.
How can you tell whether theyre getting it for the 100$ or getting it because of the restrictions exemption program, and then collecting 100$ as a bonus?
Vaccination numbers before the REP but after the 100$ were still EXTREMELY lackluster, we saw the big uptick when the REP came, so personally i think the 100$ is just wasting money that we desperately need elsewhere.
My antivaxx sister in BC got her first jab, and it wasn't because Ricky showed up and said "I'm gonna pay you $100 to fuck off."
The vaccine passport works. The fact they tried the bribe method first is entirely wasted money that should have gone towards funding healthcare. Nothing smacks of hypocrisy like saying you need to cut $145mil from the healthcare budget, then literally turning around and throwing that $145 million dollars at the people actively collapsing our Healthcare system...
I'm convinced the whole $100 per shot thing happened because they sat down at the meeting to brainstorm, and one of them posed the question of "how would someone convince us to do something?" and then they all started chirping "Bribes!" like the seagulls from Finding Nemo.
Graph 3, it's definitely the passport, not the 100$.
Oh it was obvious the passport has done the lions share in increasing vaccine numbers. What I'm saying is if some people out there are only choosing to get the vaccine due to the $100 then I would say it is worth it. I would imagine a lot of those choosing to get the vaccine due to the $100 are from demographics where transmission would also be high/likely (poor, uneducated, youth). At an average cost of $50,000 per ICU stay it is a lot cheaper.
Especially if vaccines are approved for younger kids in the coming months. Even i only half of eligible children get it that's still hopefully another 6% of the population
We will find out how many parents are antivaxxers when it comes time to vaccinate their kids. I think the numbers will be very scary how many want to skip out on it.
Vaccination rates for 12-14 year olds is higher than for 20 year olds. Hopefully kids will be vaccinated at a similar rate.
Case numbers would certainly matter, hence why this will last for years.
I have to disagree, covids going to be around forever but the only reason it's a problem is because it's filling up the hospitals. If we had the current case numbers we have now but no hospital or ICU admissions we wouldn't even have covid measures in place.
That's only *if* covid evolves to a less virulent infection. So far Delta is a more virulent variant compared to the previous strains. Case counts *always* matter.
Not really, if we had 100% of the population vaccinated right now we wouldn't be having any of these discussions. Case counts wouldn't even be a thing.
I find myself a little less optimistic. For sure it's be better, but Israel, while not 100%, is quite high and lots of vaccinated people in their statistics aren't there?
Their stats are like ours, the 17% unvaccinated account for 85% of ICU patients.
Twenty-one months in, and you continue to be completely wrong. Vaccination is never 100%, there will still be hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths.
No I'm not wrong, if we have high case counts but no hospitalizations then case counts don't matter. That's a fact.
What part of "there will still be hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths" do you refuse to understand?
The 1651 cases reported for Sept 23 in Alberta was net for the period. A total of 1695 cases were identified (1676 confirmed, 19 probable) (difference: 44, or 2.6% of the total) as confirmed by data download and https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#total-cases.
Sep 22 decreased by 26 from 1721 to 1695; Sep 21 decreased by 5 from 1329 to 1324; Sep 20 decreased by 2 from 1534 to 1532; Sep 19 decreased by 7 from 1444 to 1437; Sep 18 decreased by 2 from 1594 to 1592; Sep 17 decreased by 1 from 1607 to 1606.
Sep 16 decreased by 1 from 2007 to 2006; Sep 15 increased by 1 from 1719 to 1720; Sep 14 decreased by 1 from 1640 to 1639; Sep 13 was unchanged at 1425; Sep 12 was unchanged at 1579; Sep 11 was unchanged at 1481; Sep 10 was unchanged at 1647.
Sep 9 was unchanged at 1469; Sep 8 was unchanged at 1503; Sep 7 decreased by 1 from 1222 to 1221; Sep 6 was unchanged at 1299; Sep 5 was unchanged at 816; Sep 4 was unchanged at 1447; Sep 3 was unchanged at 1313. Sep 2 increased by 1 from 1425 to 1426; Sep 1 was unchanged at 1340.
My Mom, retired now, used to work for AHS in the financial department. She told me today you don't want to be one of the out of province transfers... once discharged you have to find your own way home.
I’m sure if being transferred means survival, people will take the hit.
I get what you mean though. It would be a shitty situation for both the patient and the family.
That seems pretty mean to be honest. Why not spring for bus fair for people wh ok cant afford it at least?
You probably wouldn’t want to travel without a companion on the bus as soon as your discharged. You should be picked up by a family member.
One of the things that makes me kindof mad about our society is that it puts the burden of care on families pretty heavily. For people like me who dont have those most places I end up living, it can mean pretty nasty consequences. For instance, I wouldn't be eligible for organ transplants in many places if I didnt have family able to get me through it. Here, what if your family cant afford to fly out to Ottawa to come pick you up? What if you cant afford to get home? Medicines job isnt over just because you are allowed out of the hospital, especially if you are now homeless and broke in a foreign province. Hell, you may have even been unconscious when some decisions were made? Not sure on that here.
It is normal if you are admitted in a hospital in say GP and transferred to Edmonton for higher level of care, that you would be discharged from that hospital. AHS doesn’t provide return transportation.
I do suspect the province will end up aiding in getting patients home though. It would be incredibly unethical for them not to. Being discharged 4 hours away from your residence is very different than a 2 day drive. Hopefully that doesn’t end up being the case for people.
You know what, let them die. We don’t need people like that in our society. Let natural selection work it’s magic
Another very suspect ICU data release.
Yesterday was 0 across the board. Today, it's +49 beds total, 0 for occupied.
Do they really expect us to believe that in back-to-back days there was a net zero of movement through the ICU when we're adding ~25 people to the ICU every day?
The last few days have seen 20-something deaths too...
>The last few days have seen 20-something deaths too...
We don't actually know how many have died in the past few days. It takes a looong time for the numbers to actually come out. The numbers they report each day can be from weeks in the past. For example. These are the 11 deaths reported today:
A male, aged 80+ years old from the Central Zone, died on August 31st, 2021
A male, aged 70-79 years old from the Central Zone, died on September 3rd, 2021
A male, aged 70-79 years old from the Central Zone, died on September 5th, 2021
A male, aged 70-79 years old from the South Zone, died on September 8th, 2021
A female, aged 50-59 years old from the South Zone, died on September 11th, 2021
A male, aged 80+ years old from the Central Zone, died on September 14th, 2021
A male, aged 80+ years old from the North Zone, died on September 18th, 2021
A male, aged 80+ years old from the Calgary Zone, died on September 18th, 2021
A female, aged 70-79 years old from the North Zone, died on September 19th, 2021
Even better. They reported 11 but we only have details about 9. The death reporting process is very wonky!!!
Right, but zero net movement through the ICU for two days in a row? I find that extremely hard to believe.
Bed empties from death or recovery, immediately refilled, no?
If we had 0 unoccupied, it would, but I'd still expect some oscillation between non-covid and covid ICUs.
But I would expect the totals to continue to rise if we have the capacity.
What I found sus is that non-covid ICU cases have been climbing quite a bit. Yesterday we had 84. BC has been reclasifying covid ICU patients as non-covid once they are no longer infectious.
I doubt it's a conspiracy to hide cases. More like the ICUs are so hectic trying to save people's lives that they aren't spending a lot of time reporting stats to AHS.
There’s no conspiracy for you to find here. The ICU is going to continue to be under stress for weeks, there is no benefit to a day or two of manipulated data. Move on.
Take off the tin foil hat. We are in the middle of a pandemic and there is a lot going on.
Positivity rate dropping!
Good signs that this is a true drop in cases.
Anyone have guesses when WFH restrictions will be lifted?
Mid-November maybe if the numbers look good. I don’t think they’re going to really want to risk another Christmas cancelled though if the numbers are looking borderline by then.
At least 2 months is my guess. Possibly more.