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if you needed a real life example of why you can't time the market, this is one of them.
Someone please insert the meme where it says the market has everything priced in ten steps before you do
The market already priced this comment in, so there's really no point to post the meme
I was going to upvote you but the market already did
I would give you an award if I had anymore money
The market took it and priced it in.
I wasn't a Virgin before I was born bc the market priced in fucking me well before conception.
Was the ending priced in as well?
Is this the inflation you are looking for? 🙄
Copy pasta from r/wallstreetbets
Everything is priced in.
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the begin
Everything is priced in except uncertainty and the BSM*.
The market for black swans is incredibly volatile and difficult to value. There are even people on Wall Street that still to this day believe the Black Swan Market (BSM)* does not even exist.
My 600gb of BDSM porn is priced in
Gbs are for rookies, get ur petabytes up.
That escalated fast
"Pay no attention to Schrödinger's Pricing Cat behind the curtain!"
This is hilarious. Unfortunately it is priced in lol
I'm putting this on a t-shirt
That’s a lot of text for a shirt
May I suggest “already priced in, bro”
How about: “I had my shit priced in!”
My shirt is 5 feet long. I had the length of text priced in.
Maybe just “I was priced in”
The market has already priced in the death of the universe
Everything makes sense now, thank you.
Sounds like OP's short play got rekt.
Shorting was at its highest at the bottom of the 08 crash.
Because it doesn't make sense?
Because it’s not as intuitive as you think it is, nor is the stock market tied to the greater economy as much as you think it might be
So it doesn't make sense
It had its most intense bull run I’ve seen during a pandemic that shut down the developed world and killed six million people over two years.
The stock market hasn’t made sense for a long while, we’re in irrational casino territory now.
How do we make money off it then?
Don't try to arbitrage the news and world events. Think of purchasing stocks as buying ownership stakes in businesses that you intend to hold for extended periods of time.
All in on weedstocks! Wait, wrong sub.
Buy bags that pay you to hold them. (Dividend stocks.) Make sure you know how to read balance sheets and financials so that you buy dividend stocks that can weather a downturn. I usually like to buy only companies with long track records of paying their dividend - especially ones that didn't cut them in 2008 and 2020. When prices fall, you average down. When prices rise, you can either choose to hold or sell some for a profit.
The cream always rises to the top. OH YEAH!
Dividend stocks is not necessarily the answer. The answer is, and always has been, buying stocks for less than the present value of their future cash flows. If they choose to pay those cash flows out as a dividend, brilliant. If they decide to buy back shares, equally good. If they reinvest it at decent rates of return, equally good (or better!)
True. The problem with non-dividend paying stocks is that you don't get the benefit of having some of that value come back to you in the form of cash flow, which gives you the benefit of either rolling that new money into your existing positions or feeding new ones.
With growth stocks, you can only depend on growth and that the future investors will pay more for your slices than you did.
That's not a problem though. If the company instead repurchases shares, it does the same thing as rolling the dividend back into the position, without the tax. If you want to put the money into another position, just sell a few shares so your ownership remains the same, and use that. Once again, the same thing but more tax efficient.
It's slightly more complicated if they decide to reinvest it, but if they're able to reinvest the cash at a ROIC above the minimum return you're aiming for in your investments, then it doesn't matter. You'll still be making money.
Dividends are mostly just reassuring.
Or you sell calls against your position and create thst value
Yup. And currently investors don't want growth. They want value. They aren't worried about the future which growth companies for the most part are. They care about the now.
1. Insider trading. IE trade what you know. While illegal, vast majority of insider trading goes undetected by the FTC.
2. Gamble. Venture capital firms expect 2% of their gambles to pay off, but those wins are so big that it makes up for all the losses. Pray you find the next Netflix, Tesla, GME before anyone else and FIRE.
3. Bogglehead, ie accept low risk-adjusted returns, and keep your day job. Most people aren’t cut out to be traders, and so your time is better spent focusing on your career and family. It’s boring and won’t pull you out of poverty, but there’s something to be said for a stable life.
That did make sense though. A lot of money was put into the economy and people had to do something with it.
Yes. You cannot rationalize something that is inherently irrational.
It makes sense because it’s not rational.
No it just means that it’s not as perfectly correlated to inflation as you think it should.
100% it doesn’t make sense because some people have prior knowledge, more knowledge. It’s psychologically taking into account hundreds of millions of people
I'd say the factored this in weeks ago inflation ain't no secret we're all filling it . 😉
Buy the rumor, sell the news. In this case sell the rumor, buy the news. They (market makers) are trying to get people out of their positions. So once the news is public and people are selling off their positions, they will buy back shares at a discount pump up the price, then do again next week.
I'd like to see a few more days or weeks of upward momentum before we draw that conclusion.
I like your purple circle fren.
But if you know all of this and play the game you still have a chance of the go directly to jail card being pulled randomly on you!
You would enjoy reading the DD that's come out of Superstonk.
He has purple circle in his profile, man is balls deep in superstonk already
Although I enjoy casual conspiracy theories, I normally write them off as missing nuances, details, etc such that things are not exactly as the theory believes. And reality is simpler / more dumb.
However, in this one, with the whole GME fiasco, where these supposed "markets" literally disabled the buy button for loading your buy orders into the supposed "order book" ... it is such a ridiculously blatant and flagrant demonstration of the shenanigans behind the scenes of the "market" and the "order book" ... that it's undeniable. You're talking the absolute most simple basic principles of a market - I want to load an order to the book that says how much I want at what price. And the market makers response: nope, can't do that, because, uhhh, it'll mess us up. Are ... you ... effing ... kidding ... me. When the riots eventually start, when the masses are in the street calling for heads, and when the masses start towards the market makers houses ... I have no intention of trying to calm the masses. These people deserve whatever is coming their way.
Impressive reading all that and you not mentioning GME once.
Anyway, all of the things mentioned above are playing out in real time with Gamestop. Fascinating stuff (and a wild ride).
Yes. It is all happening now and the GameStop fiasco of shutting off the buy-button on January 28, 2021 led me to learning the ins and outs of the market, macroeconomics and geopolitics.
The craziest part of these past 18 months is that the more I know, the more I realize how much I don’t know.
And I didn’t mention GameStop in the original comment because regardless of my position or belief in the company and its stock; I now believe that people need to fundamentally understand how deeply fraudulent and corrupt the system truly is.
Sadly, people look to point the finger to the easiest person to blame, whether its their boss, the next generation above or below theirs, the CEO, or their favorite politicians.
But the root of it all, in my opinion, stems straight from the heart of capitalistic greed fueled by WallStreet and the ultra rich that are not shown on MainStream media.
That’s my opinion, but this entire thing is bigger than GameStop. GameStop could be a catalyst to reveal what’s behind the curtains, and I think it should have been already; but now I sound like a crazy conspiracy theorist, so I’ll stop. But if you know, then you know.
I’ve said too much on now for what belongs on r/stocks, but I hope people can be inspired to dig further and learn more about how the system truly operates.
We all have so much left to learn still.
Agreed completely. There is absolutely no need for this level of complexity and - EVEN IF it's not nefarious, the result is the same: gatekeeping retail and giving highly sophisticated players an edge.
Other countries (Australia, Europe are two in familiar with) don't have anywhere near this level of complexity and carry on just fine.
In Australia, for example, every share you buy is actually DRS'd automatically. None of this literal fraud that happens in the US.
And then you have complicated shit that the majority of people haven’t even heard of such as:
- Failure to Delivers (FTD’s) on stocks that brokerages and market makers deliberately avoid buying on the open market because they have 35 days to come up with the share they were supposed to actually deliver to the buyer
- “dark pools” used by market makers with special privileges to facilitate trades negate any buy/sell pressure on the actual market that might hurt their buddies that they engage business with, which is major conflict of interest.
- trading algo’s that try to arbitrage and use transactions to manipulate order flow and to manipulate the order books.
But it’s all “legal”. Because even if it breaks the rules, Regulating entities like the SEC and FINRA stand by and do literally nothing. Or at most they’ll fine the white collar criminals a percentage of the illegal gains they made.
Fuck this white collar criminal mafia called WallStreet.
Where do more like minded people like you hang out?
Outside of Bitcoin maxies I rarely see informed and passionate distain for the utter shitshow that is our modern economic system.
When I've posted similar things here I've been ignored or mocked.
No, I've been nervous lots of times.
That's how they got Marilyn bruh.
😅😅 I love how both parts of this conversation probably are based on two different different things
Sorry, I have a [drinking problem](https://c.tenor.com/Ps62vRo72vsAAAAC/airplane-drinking.gif)
Many people convicted of insider trading actually lost money on their trades. Market moves in unpredictable ways.
I panic sold so it should rally back up!
Thank you for your service
I panic bought so whatever I get should go down. (Looking at you google)
Market goes up, market goes down, you can't explain that
As long as market goes up in the long term I’m happy 🙂
with your "science"
this is beyond science.
It will never not be funny watching people on this sub go hysterical over day to day movements
Leave your bedroom, stop staring at the 1 minute chart, go out and live life dude.
You think some fucking idiot jerkoffs on reddit can tell you the code behind millions of high frequency trading algos working the market right now?
That’s right stop looking at the 1min! Use the 5min
What are you, warren buffet?
I thought when people said stop looking at the 1min chart they meant go to the 2 min
I look at 1 day charts, but I'm old and slow.
yes, I'll give you 5 words as to how:
machine learning serverless blockchain nft
No VR? Thanks but I’m out.
Don’t stop. I’m so close….
You forgot metaverse 🌌
I think we all did.
Except the Zuck
I want to leave my basement but me mum has me locked up down here. She only feeds me once every two days and when she does she slides a single piece of Kraft cheese under the door 😞
Sounds like a good life!
It's awful. one time I was waiting for my daily slice of cheese at the top of the stairs and she opened the door and sprayed me with the hose. I fell all the way down the stairs as she pointed and laughed.
But man, the savings on rent!
And it’s not even that much of a movement. I wonder how people sustain their emotions when they get riled by so little. I just quickly looked at the charts and went “uh”.
What’s significant is the broad reality of what’s going on with the economy and the monetary policy, not what the stock market is doing.
What's good for wallstreet isn't always good for main street
While the converse is not true, unfortunately.
Damn, if there’s anyone new to stocks here, this comment section is completely mental
To get a better dump afterwards
That’s sometimes why I drink coffee
Ah, a commodities guy, ehhh?
Coffee is excellent for that; pre-workout is better.
It's all a fugazi! ✨
It’s a wazi it’s a wuzi
It's fairy dust ... It doesn't exist, it's never landed ... It's not fuckin real!
Inflation reporting is lagged a month.
So the 9.1% isn't current, it's what happened last month. I think a lot of people are expecting it to significantly decrease from here.
So essentially, speculation
Not really speculation, CPI is a laggard indicator but oil, copper, shipping, container prices are forward looking and all of them are crashing down. The market is pricing in June a peak in inflation, and transition of full on recession worries. In the next 6 months, commodities lowered prices will be reflected on retail prices, plus huge overstocked inventories everywhere.
A pity is many people won’t have a job to buy those savings
Huh? The job market is still very strong right now. I just got another COL raise, making it my 3rd in the last rolling 12 months because they don't want us to leave to competitors
Nice! What industry?
Insurace. All sectors are looking for people
> CPI is a laggard indicator but oil, copper, shipping, container prices are forward looking and all of them are crashing down
The right answer! It took a bit of scrolling but we got there.
We have very high employment
Yep. Ride the Bullwhip
Given the fact that 9.1% inflation was already yoy from a base of 5.4% in June 2021, it’s actually accelerating.
And that was after a 75 base point hike. I mean I’m still pumping money into my 401k but we aren’t at the bottom. Market is pumping because options expiring?
The base point hike literally happened in the middle of June; you can't possibly expect they would have an effect on June CPI numbers.
No, because CPI data isn't the only thing people are looking at. Retail numbers stronger than expected. Banks confirming consumer spend growing. Consumer balances grew in last couple of months. Commodities dropping across the board. Supply chain constraint index dropping.
Markets are forward looking.
Also: Why would anybody (news outlets included) give the mass population valuable information for making informed trades?
Nobody knows anything except that eventually the market will go back up, and from there is just buying on dips (like now, pushing price up) and capturing cheap shares that scared people are selling.
Might dip more, might not, but either way your best bet is to buy at each bottom.
>Why would anybody (news outlets included) give the mass population valuable information for making informed trades?
Regarding this, it's easier said than done. There's a lot of work that needs to be done to confirm the numbers, and then out any potential errors to ensure what's reported is correct.
But they’re just tabulating the data.
I’m saying nobody is going to tell how to interpret that data. CNBC can decide if they want to present the data in a positive or negative tone, and influence fear as needed.
Ohhh I thought you were saying it was a big conspiracy between the fed and media outlets on reportings
Nah, just interpretation of OP calling it “devastating news” is enough to tell OP is reading into the narrative.
I’m sure big trading firms have ways to estimate CPI along with other forward looking measures in real time to determine how the market will behave in the near term. Then just wait for news to hit and people to panic sell so they can capture cheap shares.
Significantly decrease in July? I don’t see it, housing (being 30% and core as well) is very sticky. Sure some houses have come down in price but supply’s still short and rentals are still breaking records. Also, while crude is coming down it’s still at high levels. Why because there’s still a shortage of diesel on the planet. You know the stuff that affects (or is it effects?) the cost of everything. Average driver at least in the US doesn’t notice diesel at the pump but it’s price hasn’t changed by a penny at least where I live.
It's still gonna be relatively high compared to average... I'm not saying we're gonna dip down to like 2-3%.
It's just likely going to be a good bit lower than we've previously expected. Stock market is forward thinking.
This ⬆️. Lagging data. Consumer spending is solid and we got hints of cooling inflation in the PPI numbers and today’s numbers. Plus, we ran out of sellers🤷🏼♂️. Today was looking like a gap and goodbye day after the resiliency the market showed the last two days on seemingly worse than expected news.
So it’s maybe getting less bad and bonds can rally pushing down yields AND the prospect of 75bps rate hike rather than 100 at FOMC.
Umm... Its a hurricane party?
**Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed**
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says he is preparing the biggest U.S. bank for an economic hurricane on the horizon and advised investors to do the same.
“You know, I said there’s storm clouds but I’m going to change it … it’s a hurricane,” Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York. While conditions seem “fine” at the moment, nobody knows if the hurricane is “a minor one or Superstorm Sandy,” he added.
“You’d better brace yourself,” Dimon told the roomful of analysts and investors. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”
Beginning late last year with high-flying tech names, stocks have been hammered as investors prepare for the end of the Federal Reserve’s cheap money era. Inflation at multidecade highs, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions, has sown fear that the Fed will inadvertently tip the economy into recession as it combats price increases.
Why would he tell the truth here?
Rather hold quality stocks than dollars
Market getting propped up to get people to invest and then pull the rug out
Simply put, most stocks have gotten massacred since January. Stocks don't just go up in a straight line or down forever. There's money that has to come into the market regardless. I'm guessing you had puts? CPI Is going to drop in July, just track the gas prices
I think this is the best answer. Show me an oversold asset and I'll find some reason for people to buy.
Markets are irrational in the short term.
Cuz rug pull in process
There are few ways you can try and answer the question. The most obvious: nobody fucking knows. But the crowd psychology can be absolutely nutty so when futures show no sign of going back down more people will pile in long.
Another answer: smart money has already priced in a fair amount of pain related to hikes, etc, and so now upon news that nobody is that surprised by there is a rally.
And another answer, the one I find most plausible: A lot of it has to do with the options positioning of the crowd combined with today being monthly OpEx. Whenever you buy an option the market maker who sells it to you has to hedge their short option exposure. Now on expiration day tons of hedging is unwinding, and that can cause unusual looking moves.
This is the only real answer to his question and it’s a shame you have only 3 upvotes lol.
Options, opex, dealer hedging.
Look at the volume, it is quite low, someone is buying the dip and not enough selling pressure. This won’t be a quick or strong recovery.
The issue is not inflation, it will go down. The problem is how long will it take to return to neutral? The FED is way behind its projection and there is a ceiling of how much they can raise interest rates.
"issue is not inflation" lol what are you smoking?
Cause fuck your puts. This is hedges picking your pocket.
I’m normally a theta ganger, but today I *bought* SPY 380p’s dated for Monday.
375s for Wednesday and 363 for 7/29 here. There is a lot in the pipeline in the coming weeks. I'm expecting a monthly downturn on Monday and Tuesday. Tech earnings. GDP. FOMC. Hopefully we caught the top.
Major indices are all still down on the week.
Pump before the dump
Seems to happen every time before the rate hike.
This⬆️. they will start dumping on Monday
Cramer ringing the bell Monday...
...hodl onto your butts
Exactly what it is, people in here trying to Hopium and act like we’re in the clear. It’s simply a pump before the dump just like the last rate hikes
This the best answer
Because if the market always went down in said scenarios it would be free money to short it, so it sometimes has to go up instead.
Buy itm uvxy calls with August expiry and thank me later. There is no dump without a punp
!RemindMe 1 month
Cause MM do the opposite of whatever the average Joe thinks is going to happen
100 bps hike, prices drop right around fed meeting, climb during the gap in between. Don't get caught up in this noise while interest rates are rising substantially, more pain to come.
I’m more interested in QT. That’s the $9 trillion elephant in the room. Raising funds rate but also doing QE is like draining your bathtub with the faucet still on. Let’s see what happens when the faucet is turned off.
Already started June 1st, but the ramp up to 95b begins in Sept., yes it will be interesting to see prices then!
QT has literally already started though. QE ended months ago and QT started last month.
Because core CPI was down. Energy and food drove the top line #. Gas is down a solid 10% from June so the bet is that June may be the peak figure.
Wasn’t housing costs the highest number we’ve seen so far?
Housing also seems to be on a downtrend due to higher mortgage interest. We shall see though.
I don’t think that’s what the previous numbers suggested but who knows. We won’t know the July numbers for a month
This is highly anecdotal, but if you go on any real estate website, Zillow, realtor or whatever. You’ll see that effectively all prices are down. Typically tens of thousands of dollars.
I only know this because I’m thinking about buying a house in the next two years and have been looking more into what’s available/what should I expect.
I'm guessing it may have something to do with inflation in other countries and the strengthening of the dollar. People around the world are scared and pumping money into assets linked to the dollar. Maybe.
The stock market is going up today because people are trying to find a bottom. No one knows when it will bottom, but the current view is that since most commodities prices crashed in July and the inflation report is looking at June, that it is a lagging indicator and we have reached peak inflation.
Thus people are buying in with the expectation that inflation will improve in the July report and trying to get ahead of it. This happened in the May report as well.
While the market may continue to go down or up, it's going up today because many people believe the afore-mentioned scenario and are thus predicting a bottom in June and for conditions to improve.
If inflation gets worse in July, the stock market will absolutely start crashing again. But for the time being, it looks like things may get slowly better from here, and many traders are trying to get in front of that scenario on the bet that things really do improve.
One of these pumps will be the final one before the Big Dump...
Milkshake theory, check it out, I hadn't heard of it until yesterday.
Basically during world calamities everyone throws their money into the steadiest ship, which happens to be the US. Dollar becomes stronger, and US assets and equities receive more inflow
Dead Cat Bounce
The stock market isn’t the economy. Also, the stock market is heavily manipulated in many convoluted ways.
Rug pull...ebd of day..
As with any negative reports…pump because of micro positivity but then dump because of macro negativity
Priced in before and now those who were short closed on profit once the news came out and dumb money provided liquidity
It's the last hurrah before everything goes down south. Happens every time.
Because the stock market is more a reflection of the feelings of a large group of people than a direct reflection of the economy and when have you known a large group of people with no leadership to act rationally?
The market is made up of millions of irrational people who respond to news differently and at different times, add into that emotionless algorithms, and you have a recipe for near randomness.
Because the market is a casino where nothing matters.
Because a lot of people are shorting.
Here is my uneducated opinion on this: there was about two trillion dollars being parked at the fed over nights. That money needs to go somewhere.
That somewhere is the “dip.” Some stocks have fallen for what ever reason, people needing liquidity, increase of rates, bad luck, poor business practices, what ever excuse for people to unwind their positions. Now a lot of stocks are at a “discounted” price.
I’m assuming most retail or retirees are pulling funds from investments because they need the money.
That two trillion that was being parked at the fed over night is now sweeping in to buy up everything.
That’s my take and it’s probably not a good one but that’s how I’m making sense of these pumps.
Plunge protection team, hard at work.
Because people bought stocks
Because the market isn’t free. You’re at the one whim of wall st. Anyone who tells you otherwise is disillusioned
Because Jim Cramer is ringing the bell Monday so the crash is coming then
Because the prices are exactly where they need to be.
*For what? And why?*
Because the Federal Reserve, DTCC, Hedge Funds, Major Banks, and Brokerages are all leveraged so hard in several derivative assets and a massively enormous amount of hidden debt and bad debt that will all collapse like a house of cards if they don’t move the stock market prices **exactly where they need them to be.** It’s for the best interest of the wealthy to maintain their wealth, and for the entire country’s geopolitical and macroeconomic position in the world in terms of GDP and the US DOLLAR as the World Reserve Currency.
I have zero proof or evidence. But I do know the entire stock market is manipulated and fake, and not controlled by true supply/demand. It is by design due to the US DOLLAR being removed from the Gold Standard, and due to the creation of derivative assets that can be used to manipulate (to an extent) literally any asset, including crypto.
The supply/demand and any price movements in the entire stock market is controlled by large entities through the usage derivatives such as:
- any type of margin credit or borrowing
And that’s my tinfoil for the day. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.
Edit: and if you actually believe anything is “priced in”, or if you still believe that any amount dip-buying or panic-selling from retail investors matters, or that any technical analysis can justify any price movements stock market, then you should reconsider what you’ve been taught by mainstream media.
Edit2: and to you who say “time in the market is better than timing the market”, you’re absolutely correct. But what you’re missing is **that is EXACTLY what WallStreet wants you to do.** If you try to time the market, you lose. If you stay out of the market, you lose. So your best option is really to DCA your ROTH or your 401k for 40 years as a working class citizen, while the DTCC, Banks and Brokerages use that money of yours to profit with… because you don’t actually own the stocks you own unless its in your own name, off a brokerage… and because you can’t touch your own retirement money until you’re about ready to die at 65 years old. That’s sounds like a crypto scam with a 40-year lock-up period!!!
Oh and during all this time, since the US dollar (and all other currencies around the entire world) is a fiat currency that is completely removed from the gold standard, it is eventually bound to either default off treasury bonds, or hyper-inflate itself until it is rendered worthless.
So yeah, of course the market is pumping. It’s going **exactly where they need it to go**. Not because the actual underlying companies are doing well. “Company Fundamentals” my ass. Lol.
Holy shit God damn I’m so sick of this system. But you have to play the game and comply to even have a chance to see light at the end of the tunnel.
You get it.
whales and algos control the market now. Billionaires figured out how to manipulate things and logic is now gone. doom gloom shroom
It's a short squeeze.
It happened a bit before the last rate hike as well. And then got hit. I believe many people *want* to believe the recession won't come and things will get better. But feelings will not fix or stop reality.
It’ll probably start dumping next week.
Because the majority of trading is done by algorithms. Trying to understand why they make the moves they do is a million dollar job.
Because the market can stay irrational longer than you can spray solvent
The market is not as simple to predict as you pretend.
The stock market will drive you crazy if you follow it all day every day. That is why trading options is so challenging right now (in my opinion). Every time you think you understand the direction of the market, it flips the other way….then flips back a few days later.
I personally am going with the max pain theory. There were a lot of puts expiring at the end of the week that were going ITM so the MM had an interest in pumping us up to wipe those puts. I also think it was a good reason to wait to open up new short positions. I would not be surprised if we leg down on Monday but you never know with this market